Predictive Firefighting for data-driven demand planning

Premergency for Predictive Analytics at Fire Departments

Predictive Firefighting for data-driven demand planning

Effective controlling and meaningful indicators are crucial to risk-based, strategic planning in fire departments, fire brigades and emergency response services.

Smart firefighting, also known as Predictive Firefighting or Predictive Fire Services, closes the gap between conventional fire prevention and -planning by adding GIS-Data, statistics and location studies with external risk factors. The risk of incidents and fire ignition can be identified by predictive analytics. Inspections and strategies can be adapted to mitigate the identified risks.

Smart Firefighting using Premergency

“Fighting Fire with Computers and Intuition” – Premergency supports your strategic planning by involving probabilities und relationships (e.g. incident hotspots). Predictive analytics means for fire departments to learn from past and current data and predict future incidents.

We support the transformation of your strategic and demand planning to a forward-looking, risk-oriented tool. For your risk model we combine both your historical emergency deployment data, data of preventive fire protection, the operational preparation and use of socio-demographic data. Leverage the advantages of Predictive Firefighting with Premergency!

The implementation of our product Premergency for predictive analytics in fire departments or fire brigades is divided into the areas Define – Measure – Analyze. Optionally, the areas Improve & Control ensure the implementation and monitoring of your strategy for predictive firefighting.

More details about predictive firefighting can be found in our German article about demand planning at fire departments.

Case study with Premergency

Read our case study about Predictive Firefighting using Premergency with open data from the Seattle Fire Department


  • Kick-off workshop with your executives

    In a joint workshop with our customers, we determine existing data sources, analysis areas and contact persons. We define common objectives of analysis, urgency and required forecasting capacities in terms of Predictive Firefighting. Together we assess the current use of geographic information systems and data usage for the current demand planning based on an objective set of criteria.

  • Individual interviews

    In interviews with the previously determined experts and executives we determine existing data sources and processes of data analysis. We document the existing data based on a raw data pattern. Additionally,  you provide us with anonymised sample records if appropriate.


  • Analysis of existing data

    We analyze the existing data relating to statistical significance, validity, timeliness, completeness and consistency. We assess the existing data processes in terms of achieved data quality.

  • Development and documentation of relevant key performance indicators

    Preparing possible derivations and forecasting methods, we put together the performance indicators in use and document important filter criteria and characteristics.

  • Survey of speeds in emergency operation

    For further analysis steps, measuring local alarm speeds is necessary. These we collect with you based on your latest mission protocols. Alternatively, drive tests can be performed if a survey during your everyday routine should not be possible.

  • Statement on the achievement of data quality and data management


  • Defining possible data potentials

    We find possible forecasting and data potentials and collate these with existing data for Predictive Firefighting. We prioritize these potentials based on the assessed urgency. For this purpose we combine different existing data sources of your departments to conduct a comprehensive analysis of your data.

  • Derivation of key indicator systems for your application

    Together, we analyze existing indicators and build a comprehensive key performance indicator system. This way you gain insight on current and future demands and you can take measures accordingly.

  • Concept for the utilization of geographic information systems

    We collect and analyze your existing sites and hotspots of incidents. Based on the duration of drives, we develop isochrones for your sites and staff. Together, we determine risks and geographic information for your administrative area. Based on identified risks, we conduct an optional site optimization.

  • Documentation

    You will receive a report on existing potential for prognoses, data structures and data quality. We document the developed key performance indicator system. We also make recommendations for data management and use of geographic information systems for your predictive demand planning.

    Furthermore, we document prognosis potential for further use, for example, in a risk model. At the same time we state metrics for measuring a successful risk-based demand planning implementation.

  • Statement about data usage and sites


  • Implementation of self-service dashboards

    On request, we implement prescriptive dashboards, bringing together all existing measures. This enables you to remain agile and gain a comprehensive overall view of occurring alarms a as first data initiative. We introduce a system of key performance identifiers to lay the foundation for predictive analytics, smart firefighting and risk models.

  • Implementation of geographic forecasting models using Premergency

    We support your demand planning as specialists for geographic analyses and establishing a central database. By request, we coordinate with your IT department, consulting or experts in order to implement the recommended prognostic models on a singular occasion or as a long term application for Predictive Firefighting.

  • Project controlling for data management

    We support your data management by merging your data from fire prevention, operations management, application engineering and other sources. This provides you with comprehensive, cross-departmental access to existing data.

    This can provide a significant benefit, especially when it comes to planning new control centers and associated data center.


  • Control of data and prognosis metrics

    After implementation we will assist you by constantly monitoring the accomplished quality of forecasting and data within Premergency for Predictive Firefighting. On request, we train your staff accordingly in the use of geographic information systems and central databases. We pave your organisation’s way towards smart firefighting and data-oriented analysis.


Controlling as the basis for a reliable demand planning

Risk assessment (prior) using Premergency and predictive analytics for anytown based on data from demand planning enabling predictive firefighting. Map data © 2015 HERE

Risk assessment (prior) for anytown based on data from demand planning. Map data © 2015 HERE

Predictive analytics with Premergency showing self-learned probability (posterior) of emergencies for fire services based on a multifactor model for anytown. Map data © 2015 HERE

Self-learned probability (posterior) of emergencies for fire services based on a multifactor model for anytown. Map data © 2015 HERE

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