Predictive Firefighting for data-driven demand planning

Premergency for Predictive Analytics at Fire Departments

Predictive Firefighting for data-driven demand planning

For risk-based, strategic planning in fire departments, fire brigades and emergency response services effective controlling and meaningful indicators are crucial.

Smart firefighting, also known as Predictive Firefighting or Predictive Fire Services, closes the gap of of conventional fire prevention and -planning by adding GIS-Data, statistics and location studies with external risk factors. The risk of incidents and fire ignition can be identified by predictive analytics. Inspections and strategy can be adapted to mitigate the identified risks.

Smart Firefighting using Premergency

“Fighting Fire with Computers and Intuition” – Premergency supports your strategic planning by involving probabilities und relationships (e.g. incident hotspots). Predictive analytics means for fire departments to learn from past and current data and predict future incidents.

We support the transformation of your strategic and demand planning to a forward-looking, risk-oriented tool. For your risk model we combine both your historical emergency deployment data, data of preventive fire protection, the operational preparation and use of socio-demographic data. Leverage the advantages of Predictive Firefighting with Premergency!

The implementation of our product Premergency for predictive analytics in fire departments or fire brigades is divided into the areas Define – Measure – Analyze. Optionally, the areas Improve & Control ensure the implementation and monitoring of your strategy for predictive firefighting.

More details about predictive firefighting can be found in our German article about demand planning at fire departments.

Case study with Premergency

Read our case study about Predictive Firefighting using Premergency with open data from the Seattle Fire Department


  • Kick-off workshop with your executives

    In a joint workshop we place existing data sources, analysis areas and contact persons determined with you. We define common objectives of analysis, urgency and required forecasting capacities in terms of Predictive Firefighting. Together we assess the current use of geographic information systems and data usage for the current demand planning based on an objective set of criteria.

  • Individual interviews

    In interviews with the previously determined subject matter experts and executives we determine existing data sources and processes of data analysis. We document the existing data on the basis of raw data schema and you provide us with if appropriate anonymised sample records.


  • Analysis of existing data

    We analyze the existing data relating to statistical significance, validity, timeliness, completeness and consistency. We assess the existing data processes in terms of reached data quality.

  • Development and documentation of relevant key performance indicators

    In preparation of possible derivations and forecasting methods, we put together the performance indicators used and document important filter criteria and characteristics.

  • Survey of speeds in emergency operation

    For further analysis steps, the measurement of local alarm speeds is necessary. This we raise with you based on the current utilization of alarm trips. Alternatively, drive tests can be performed when a survey in daily business should not be possible.

  • Statement on the achievement of data quality and data management


  • Defining possible data potentials

    We find potential forecasting and data potentials and collate these with the existing data for Predictive Firefighting. We prioritize these potentials based on the assessed urgency. For this pupose we combine different existing data sources of your departments to conduct a comprehensive overall data situation.

  • Derivation of key indicator systems for your application

    Together, we analyze existing indicators and build a comprehensive key performance indicator system on. So you have the current and future needs firmly in mind and can derive measures accordingly.

  • Concept for the utilization of geographich information systems

    We collect and analyze your existing sites and hotspots of incidences. In addition, we develop drive time isochrones for your sites and staff. Jointly, we determine risks and geographic information for your administrative area. Based on identified risks, we carry out an optional site optimization.

  • Documentation

    You will receive a report on existing potential for prognosis, data structures and data quality. We document the developed key performance indicator system. We also make recommendations for data management and use of geographic information systems for your predictive deamnd plannings.

    Furthermore, we document prognosis potential for further use, for example, in a risk model. At the same time we state metrics for the measurement of a successful risk-based damand planning implementation.

  • Statement about data usage and sites


  • Implementation of self-service dashboards

    On request, we implement prescriptive dashboards, bringing together all existing measures. This enables you to remain agile and achieve a comprehensive overall view of your alarm deployment volumes as first data initiative. We introduce a system of key performance identifiers to build the grounds for predictive analytics, smart firefighting and risk models.

  • Implementation of geographic forecasting models using Premergency

    We support your demand planning as specialists for geographic analysis and the establishment of a central database. On request, we put the recommended models to prognosis using Premergency. We coordinate with your IT department, consulting and your subject matter experts as a unique analysis or as an application for Predictive Firefighting.

  • Project management for data management

    We support your data management by merging your data from fire prevention, operations management, application engineering and other sources. This provides you with comprehensive, cross-departmental access to existing data.

    This can provide a significant added benefit, especially in the planning of new control centers and associated data center.


  • Control of data and prognosis metrics

    After implementation we will assist you by constantly monitoring the forecasting and reached data quality within Premergency for Predictive Firefighting. On request, we train your staff accordingly in the use of the models, geographic information systems and central databases. We transform your organisation towards smart firefighting and data-oriented analysis.


Controlling as the basis for a reliable demand planning

Risk assessment (prior) using Premergency and predictive analytics for anytown based on data from demand planning enabling predictive firefighting. Map data © 2015 HERE

Risk assessment (prior) for anytown based on data from demand planning. Map data © 2015 HERE

Predictive analytics with Premergency showing self-learned probability (posterior) of emergencies for fire services based on a multifactor model for anytown. Map data © 2015 HERE

Self-learned probability (posterior) of emergencies for fire services based on a multifactor model for anytown. Map data © 2015 HERE

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